Xref: utzoo comp.misc:1815 talk.rumors:1023 Path: utzoo!mnetor!uunet!lll-winken!lll-lcc!ames!aurora!labrea!agate!saturn!ucscc.UCSC.EDU!fiatlux From: fiatlux@ucscc.UCSC.EDU (David Vangerov) Newsgroups: comp.misc,talk.rumors Subject: Re: Massive computer industry failures and layoff's coming soon!!!! Message-ID: <1811@saturn.ucsc.edu> Date: 2 Feb 88 09:38:09 GMT References: <1105@polyslo.UUCP> <5105@well.UUCP> Sender: usenet@saturn.ucsc.edu Reply-To: fiatlux@ucscc.UCSC.EDU (David Vangerov) Organization: University of California, Santa Cruz; CATS Lines: 102 Keywords: markets layoffs futures Summary: educational market seems to be alive and well In article <5105@well.UUCP> ewhac@well.UUCP (Leo 'Bols Ewhac' Schwab) writes: >[ Wouldn't you like to be a line eater too? ] > > John L. Bass forecasts a gloomy horizon for the microcomputer >industry, based on the argument that the market is saturated. > > The *business* market may be saturated, but I feel that there are >many other markets which have yet to be addressed, and which are potentially >lucrative. One such market is the educational market. I work as a consultant in one of the labs on our campus and from the looks of things, bussiness is booming. More and more people are using the equipment that we have. And I see more and more computers being purchased across campus for both student use and faculty and staff use. Apple has been using some very smart marketing techniques. They "seed" a campus with Macs by selling them to students and the University at a very low rate. The students get used to using them so much that they don't want to leave college without one. This has been very effective. The number of labs for PC/Mac use has risen dramatically in the 3 1/2 years that I've been here. I've seen the lab I work in grow from 3 PC's and couple of Macs to 7 PC's and 6 Macs (and one of 'em is a Mac II). We're a small lab. We mostly do Unix consulting for the campus, but the amount of PC/Mac consulting has risen a lot and a lot of people look to us (the Computer Center) first when something goes wrong (and in some cases we're the last hope). > No one "needs" a PC. God knows we just finished a bloody war over >in comp.sys.amiga on whether or not anyone "needs" multitasking. People >curious about computers will continue to buy the things, as well as >technofreaks. No, but when you write a paper, a computer sure makes it a lot easier to do so, especially when it comes to revisions, checking spelling, keeping an extra copy of a paper around. The typewriter on campus is being replaced by a piece of silicon... >> 5) It takes about 5 years for a new market to mature. There is no >> promising computer product on the horizon to force early retirement >> of the current installed base of systems. An upgrade market will >> exist ... but with small volumes and margins. >> > Obviously you haven't looked at the Amiga :-). Desktop video is >only beginning to get off the ground (we've had two years head start), and >so far it looks good. Also, I don't see desktop publishing (Apple's baby) >heading for a downturn. Judging from the most recent MacWorld Expo, I'd say that Apple expects to do very fine in the next few years. The Mac II and desktop publishing seems to have caught on very well. >> 6) The mid range multiuser systems and workstations will be >> significantly affected by the price wars in the 386 product lines. >> Many of the current workstation players will go down as well with >> UNIX is becoming more common on 386 desktops with high res graphics. >> > Maybe not on 386 machines, but I suspect UNIX will become more >popular, too, given that OS/2 is largely predicted to be a complete and >utter loss. However, don't count Apollo or Sun out yet; they've got lots of >good ideas... I'd say that the mainframe/mine market seems rather alive and well in the University arena. While a lot of students are migrating towards Macs/PC's, I still see a lot more people using the Unix systems that we have here. More and more of the Boards of studies are either aquiring their own mini systems (usually something along the lines of a Sun system or an Intergrated Solutions system (both use the MC68020)) or using the Computer Center's (the people I work for) 6 VAX 11/750's for class use. In fact the rise in usage seems to have prompted the CC to look into purchasing new machines since the 750's are overworked most of the time. The 386 definitely has potential, as does the 68020 and 68030. All of them seem to really hot chips, though I think the 68020 has the edge currently in terms of installed systems. >> 8) There will be a strong service and support market for orphaned >> computers and software. >> > Absolutely, though I don't think you'll ever be able to call PC's >"orphans"; there are just too many of the blasted things. > >> 9) There will be a sharply lower demand for computer engineers, >> computer sales and support staff. [ ... ] > > Dunno about sales and support, but engineering looks like a strong >job market to me. There's still a hell of a lot of stuff yet to be designed >out there... No matter how simple and intutive they make a computer, people will still need help. And now matter how simple they make it to use, people still manage to get stuck. I see it every day at work. The support end of the bussiness doesn't seem like it's going to be going under. +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | David Vangerov | | Just your average Theater Arts major with a weird thing for computers | | fiatlux@ucscc.BITNET || fiatlux@ucscc.ucsc.EDU || ...!ucbvax!ucscc!fiatlux | +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+