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From: campbell@maynard.BSW.COM (Larry Campbell)
Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines,misc.jobs.misc,talk.rumors
Subject: Re: Doom and Gloom, as they say, revisited (computer market failures)
Message-ID: <1052@maynard.BSW.COM>
Date: 7 Feb 88 16:14:02 GMT
References: <1177@polyslo.UUCP>
Organization: The Boston Software Works, Inc., Boston, MA
Lines: 32

I watched the previous round of drivel on this topic silently.  This time,
I can't stand it.  There are two MAJOR misconceptions here:

    1)	"The PC industry" is *NOT* synonymous with "the computer industry".

    2)	You completely ignore upgrades.  Example:  every company big enough
	to need a mainframe probably had one by 1965.  Did the mainframe
	business die in 1965?  Hardly.  It's still probably, what, a
	$50 billion a year industry, and going strong (despite all the
	smug predictions of extinction by the PC geeks five or six
	years ago).

People will continue to buy PCs because the old ones get obsolete.  This
continues to be forced by two functions:

    1)	The manufacturers will cease to support them.  No sane businessperson
	will build their business on hardware that can't be repaired, quickly
	and relatively cheaply.

    2)	Software marches on, and the old hardware is too small and slow to
	run the new software.  Try running OS/2, or Windows, or Microport
	System V with DOS Merge, on an 8088-based machine.

Now, it's true that we probably have seen the end of the boom years of the PC
industry, and it's a good thing, too.  The dizzying growth and pell-mell
embracing of PC technology has permitted far too many shabby products and
shady companies to succeed in the short term.  When the market slows down,
the marginal players should, and will, fail, leaving only the quality outfits.
-- 
Larry Campbell                                The Boston Software Works, Inc.
Internet: campbell@maynard.bsw.com          120 Fulton Street, Boston MA 02109
uucp: {husc6,mirror,think}!maynard!campbell         +1 617 367 6846