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From: jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass)
Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines,misc.jobs.misc,talk.rumors
Subject: Re: Doom and Gloom, Reply to David Vangerov
Summary: Re: I don't see doom and gloom ahead.
Message-ID: <1224@polyslo.UUCP>
Date: 11 Feb 88 12:32:00 GMT
References: <1177@polyslo.UUCP> <2197@isis.UUCP> <1902@saturn.ucsc.edu>
Organization: Cal Poly State Univ,CSC Dept,San Luis Obispo,CA 93407
Lines: 53

> From: fiatlux@ucscc.UCSC.EDU (David Vangerov)
> 
> I see the computer industry as being somewhat analogous to the
> the automobile industry. A low end-car goes for about as much as
> a high-end PC (like the Mac II or IBM PS/2 Model 80). Here is a
> market whose products are much more expensive than what a PC goes
> for, yet continues to sell very well. Why? Well one reason seems
> to be that our lives and lifestyles depend heavily on the use of
> a car. How many cars/trucks/busses are out there in the US? 200
> million? 300? More? And what's the typical lifespan of a car?
> 5 years? 6 years? More? 
> 
> The computer industry is starting to become like the auto
> industry. Our lives are becoming more and more dependant upon
> those little slabs of silicon. We use them to get money out of a
> machine, make flight reservations, generate payroll, control your
> car's ignition/fuel-injection/etc, keep your house warm/cold, write 
> a paper for a class, do your calculus homework and so and so on.

	For some folks this may be true ... it certainly is for me...
but looking around me I KNOW I am an exception in 1988/89. There is
no compelling reason for very many people to have a home computer
system today or in the near future .... that is the basic period of
interest in my postings. What happens in 1990 and beyond will not
affect the 1988 market much.

	Since it takes 3 to 5 years for a mass market to develop,
and there is no existing need or product today that would compell
the market place, it is clear that this senerio will have little
effect on the 1988/89 market place.

> I don't buy the line that the useful market for PC's is only 20
> or so million. Which market? Bussiness? Technical? Home?
> Educational? Which one? I find it quite hard to believe that the
> total market for PC's is only 20 million units. There is more
> than just the bussiness market out there. PC's are inching their
> way into some very interesting areas, like the television
> industry. There are some products out for the Mac II that allow
> you to do some very intersting stuff.

	A technical product doesn't create it's own market need.
People need a use for the product. Consider that VCR's saturated
this fall at 37% of households (about 30 million homes). Sure they
will continue to sell ... just much more slowly. Maybe the total
market size in 10 years will grow to 60% or more .... maybe VCR's
will become obsolete like reel-to-reel tapes before then?

	What is so compelling about a PC at $1,000 that would make it more
attractive to most US households than a VCR at $225.

Have Fun,
John Bass
DMS Design