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From: jjboritz@watcgl.waterloo.edu (Jim Boritz)
Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines,misc.jobs.misc,talk.rumors
Subject: Re: Doom and Gloom, Reply to David Vangerov
Message-ID: <3320@watcgl.waterloo.edu>
Date: 22 Feb 88 09:03:46 GMT
References: <1177@polyslo.UUCP> <2197@isis.UUCP> <1902@saturn.ucsc.edu> <1224@polyslo.UUCP>
Reply-To: jjboritz@watcgl.waterloo.edu (Jim Boritz)
Organization: U. of Waterloo, Ontario
Lines: 53

In article <1224@polyslo.UUCP> jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass) writes:
>
>	A technical product doesn't create it's own market need.
>People need a use for the product. Consider that VCR's saturated
>this fall at 37% of households (about 30 million homes). Sure they
>will continue to sell ... just much more slowly. Maybe the total
>market size in 10 years will grow to 60% or more .... maybe VCR's
>will become obsolete like reel-to-reel tapes before then?
>
>	What is so compelling about a PC at $1,000 that would make it more
>attractive to most US households than a VCR at $225.
>
>Have Fun,
>John Bass
>DMS Design

I have read most of the postings on this topic although I have missed a
couple.  Most of the questions I have seen have been a result of not reading
past the line you disagree with.  I hope my questions are new.  

There is a great deal of talk about the estimated market size.  Especially
in comparisson to VCR's.  Unfortunately most companies do not provide each
of their employees with a VCR.  In addition, I am not likely to see someone
with a VCR at home, being given one at work  (i.e.  A bad way of saying
that a person may have a machine at work and at home as well).  I have the
impression that the number of companies that provide one computer for 50
employees is about the same as the number that provide a one to one ratio.
How about comparing the computer to the telephone?  In some ways it is
similar to the computer market.  Yes it is also different, but so is the
VCR.  I may have a telephone at work and a telephone at home, and a phone
for the kids.  It is highly unlikely that they will each be of the same
capability or expense.

Another issue is the number of small market segments.  On its own, a
small market segment can be discounted, because its size is unimportant
in relation to other larger values.  However, the existence of many
small markets adds up.  Would these not make up a big enough population
segment to alter your figures? 

I am of the belief that that the market has to slow down somewhere, it is not
infinite, and I hope most people agree with this.  However, your predictions
of possilble 50-60 percent decreases seem much to severe.  They paint the
picture in black and white.  There seems to be an assumption that after 20
million PC's get sold (or any other figure you may choose) the market is
going to stop dead in its tracks and switch over from a first time market to
a replacement market overnight.  I doubt that this is the case.  Is there
any way to account for the transition period?  

Just curious.
-- 
Jim Boritz			jjboritz@watcgl.waterloo.edu
Computer Graphics Lab		
University of Waterloo 		{allegra,utai,clyde}!watmath!watcgl!jjboritz