Xref: utzoo comp.misc:1947 misc.headlines:2400 misc.jobs.misc:1329 talk.rumors:1071
Path: utzoo!dciem!nrcaer!cognos!crcmar!steve
From: steve@crcmar.crc.uucp (Steve Ardron)
Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines,misc.jobs.misc,talk.rumors
Subject: Re: Doom and Gloom, Reply to Andrew Burt
Message-ID: <615@crcmar.crc.uucp>
Date: 18 Feb 88 19:51:48 GMT
Article-I.D.: crcmar.615
Posted: Thu Feb 18 14:51:48 1988
References: <1222@polyslo.UUCP>
Organization: CRC, Ottawa CANADA
Lines: 68

in article <1222@polyslo.UUCP>, jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass) says:
> Xref: crcmar comp.misc:1249 misc.headlines:1571 misc.jobs.misc:682 talk.rumors:189
> Posted: Thu Feb 11 07:26:46 1988
> 
> 	IF there were black & white market size numbers it would be easy to
> give you the PROOF you think you need. Unfortunately I haven't seen any
> numbers which are specficly labeled "the offical PC 1988 market size". Lacking
> such I BOLDLY used the following estimate DETAILED in my first posting:
> 
> 	"The real number is probably much smaller -- look around you for the
> 	next week and take your own sample of how many people in the general
> 	population have/need access to a PC for any reason."
> 
> The above estimate of one PC for 10 people (20 million PC's for 200 million
> people) is not outragously large (or small) ... to claim the number is either
> as little as 1 in 5 or as large as 1 in 20 WOULD take some justification!
> The 20% error in US population size estimate is in the noise given the other
> error probabilities!
> 
> 	In sampling my aquaintances I get a number of something larger than
> 1 in 15 ... that may be an quirk of this local. I can not in my wildest dreams
> believe a number in 1988/89 of 1 in 5 or roughly 40 million units (or 48 million
> units by the revised estimate of population size). After subtracting out
> youth under 15, unemployed, housewives, and retired folks that would make
> the ratio in the working class about 1 in 3 ... totally absurd!
> 
> 	As of 1988 a PC hasn't a fraction of the utility of a VCR for
> most households ... maybe some compelling application/software will be
> developed in the next few years which will drive a stronger home market.
> A PC with printer and hard drive (usable configuration) is also about
> four times the cost of a VCR. I don't expect 1 in 3 households to have
> a PC anytime in the next few years.
> 

  I also have a few problems with your projections. When I lived in the States,
almost 100% of households that I knew had Home computers! Many, almost half,
had more than one! As computers become more prominent, most middle class
families buy >one computer for their children at school, many universities
require students to buy their own computers, and many households don't
resell their computers, they just get stuffed in a closet.

  You were also argueing against yourself later in your article, as you said
that a change in price wouldn't affect the total demand, yet later you said
that more people would buy a VCR than a PC because a PC system was 4X the
cost.

  You also based almost all your arguements on using PCs as typewriters, an
invalid assumption if I ever heard one. Many people use their machines for
games at home, and many small businesses and not a few households use them
(or will use them) for database applications, an application that is very
dependant on the machine for how well it will run. With these applications
in mind, a printer isn't needed, and not even a hard drive is required,
bringing the price of the PC down to the level of a VCR. This is still
rapidly falling with no sign of letting up.

  As was said by others, and I don't feel adequetly rebutted by you, there
are still many other uses for PCs showing up. Many of these aren't brand
new, and have allready completed much of their integration. Such things
as computer shopping and banking have great potential for expanding the  
PC market when a PC and modem costs only a few hundred, along with
the previously mentioned heating and light control, aswell as games,
typing and databases that are allready there. I'd say these things
made a PC a hell of alot more useful than a VCR that is only for
entertainment.

					Stevie.

P.S. please excuse the many typos and bad grammer, since I was in a hurry.