Path: utzoo!mnetor!uunet!seismo!sundc!pitstop!sun!amdcad!ames!hao!boulder!cu-den!udenva!isis!aburt
From: aburt@isis.UUCP (Andrew Burt)
Newsgroups: comp.misc
Subject: Re: Doom and Gloom, Reply to Andrew
Message-ID: <2213@isis.UUCP>
Date: 18 Feb 88 14:55:58 GMT
References: <1222@polyslo.UUCP> <122600002@inmet>
Reply-To: aburt@isis.UUCP (Andrew Burt)
Organization: Math/CS, University of Denver
Lines: 34

In article <122600002@inmet> justin@inmet.UUCP writes:
>   To date, I have ignored this whole argument as (probably) pointless.

Probably a wise move; I've given up arguing, I'm confident time will prove
who of us was right.  (And remember, US market changes don't count; John
Bass will only be correct if the PC market suffers a 50% decline on top of
any US economic problems.)

>...   For example, I can think of two applications which are in the initial
>stages of catching on, which could completely invalidate this assumption.

Another one I've heard rumors about is that the IRS will begin pushing for
returns to be filed on-line.  Providing enough PCs so the fraction of late
filers can upload their return on April 14th should keep the market going
for decades... :-)  [But seriously, there are around 100 million individual
returns filed each year; if this gives people the push needed to purchase
a PC then there are a lot of potential PC purchasers out there with a "reason"
to buy.  No doubt publicly available PC's will flourish even more, but
then those are sales too...]

Like I said before: You can't predict future applications.  Someone could
come out with a new piece of s/w tomorrow that opens up a new use for PCs
and up go sales of PC's.

(Besides, JB said his 20% mistake on US population was well within his
margin of error on other points anyway, a statement I interpret to mean
he knows his numbers *could be* way off.  As I tried to show, his errors
could be so gross as to indicate a mere 13% drop -- and that was still
assuming most of his premises, that validity of which I highly doubt as well.)
-- 

Andrew Burt 				   			isis!aburt

              Fight Denver's pollution:  Don't Breathe and Drive.