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From: erict@flatline.UUCP (eric townsend)
Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines,misc.jobs.misc,talk.rumors
Subject: Re: Doom and Gloom, Reply to Andrew Burt
Message-ID: <412@flatline.UUCP>
Date: 18 Feb 88 21:51:48 GMT
References: <1177@polyslo.UUCP> <2197@isis.UUCP> <1222@polyslo.UUCP>
Organization: flatline in Houston(Montrose, really), Tx.
Lines: 41
Summary: Problems with sampling...

In article <1222@polyslo.UUCP>, jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass) writes:
> 
> 	In sampling my aquaintances I get a number of something larger than
> 1 in 15 ... that may be an quirk of this local. I can not in my wildest dreams

I would imagine this is a quirk.  The only even semi-valid use or your
sample would be in making statements about the sample itself.  There
is really no predictive value in your sample.  It sounds nit-picky,
but it's rather important not to make hasty assumptions...

> 	Try the following: pick numbers, at RANDOM in the phone book until
> 20 people answer the following survey -- Ask them "do you CURRENTLY use
> a personal computer or have need to use a personal computer on a DAILY basis?"

This is better, but still not really valid each person in America does not
have an equal chance of being chosen for the sample.  A test of this
sort using a list of names from the Census would be a little better...
A phone book is better than "asking the guys at work", but still not perfect.

> 	This is VERY LIKE the automotive industry where current stats
> show the median life of a car at about 10 years. A new car is obsolete
> for the jet set in a year (new model comes out), first-owners keep a
> new car an average of about 3 years, a typical car has 3 or 4 owners in
> it's lifetime. A typical person buys ONE new car in their lifetime. A typical
> new drivers first car is a USED car. 

I think this is very valid with computers... I owned a C= 64, one of the
first few thousand sold in America (how many of us payed $600+ for a C64?).
Now I use a rather used 3b1.  The C64 lasted me at least 7 or 8 years, I
expect I'll use the 3b1 for 10 or 15..  If I don't sell it to someone else.

As for how many households have computers, I would suggest to you the
_Statistical_Abstract_of_the_United_States_ for the most recent year
that they surveyed for computer ownership.


-- 
Just say NO to skate harassment. | Just another journalist with too much
If I wish really hard, will IBM go away forever?        | computing power..
Girls play with toys. Real women skate. -- Powell Peralta ad
J. Eric Townsend ->uunet!nuchat!flatline!erict smail:511Parker#2,Hstn,Tx,77007