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From: sbrunnoc@eagle.ulowell.edu (Sean Brunnock)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures,comp.ai
Subject: Re: The future of AI [was Re: Time Magazine -- Computers of the Future]
Message-ID: <5789@swan.ulowell.edu>
Date: 28 Mar 88 12:46:29 GMT
References: <8803270154.AA08607@bu-cs.bu.edu> <962@daisy.UUCP>
Sender: news@swan.ulowell.edu
Reply-To: sbrunnoc@eagle.UUCP (Sean Brunnock)
Organization: University of Lowell, CS Dept.
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In article <962@daisy.UUCP> klee@daisy.UUCP (Ken Lee) writes:
>What do people think of the PRACTICAL future of artificial intelligence?
>
>Is AI just too expensive and too complicated for practical use?  I
>
>Does AI have any advantage over conventional programming?  

   Bear with me while I put this into a sociological perspective. The first
great "age" in mankind's history was the agricultural age, followed by the
industrial age, and now we are heading into the information age. The author
of "Megatrends" points out the large rise in the number of clerks as
evidence of this. 

   The information age will revolutionize agriculture and industry just as
industry revolutionized agriculture one hundred years ago. Industry gave to
the farmer the reaper, cotton gin, and a myriad of other products which
made his job easier. Food production went up an order of magnitude and by
the law of supply and demand, food became less valuable and farming became
less profitable.

   The industrial age was characterized by machines that took a lot of
manual labor out of the hands of people. The information age will be
charcterized by machines that will take over mental tasks now accomplished
by people.
   
   For example, give a machine access to knowledge of aerodynamics,
engines, materials, etc. Now tell this machine that you want it to
design a car that can go this fast, use this much fuel per mile, cost
this much to make, etc. The machine thinks about it and out pops a 
design for a car that meets these specifications. It would be the
ultimate car with no room for improvement (unless some new scientific
discovery was made) because the machine looks at all of the possibilities.
These are the types of machines that I expect AI to make possible
in the future.

   I know this is an amateurish analysis, but it convinces me to study
AI.

   As for using AI in conventional programs? Some people wondered what
was the use of opening up a trans-continental railroad when the pony 
express could send the same letter or package to where you wanted in just
seven days. AI may be impractical now, but we have to keep making an effort
at it.


       Sean Brunnock
       University of Lowell
       sbrunnoc@eagle.cs.ulowell.edu