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From: saal@sfsup.UUCP (S.Saal)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures,comp.ai
Subject: Re: The future of AI - my opinion
Summary: I obsoletes itself
Message-ID: <2979@sfsup.UUCP>
Date: 31 Mar 88 15:10:30 GMT
References: <8803270154.AA08607@bu-cs.bu.edu> <962@daisy.UUCP> <4640@bcsaic.UUCP>
Reply-To: saal@/doc/dsg/saalUUCP (xt1124-S.Saal)
Organization: AT&T Information Systems
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I think the pessimism about AI is a bit more subtle.  Whenever
something is still only vaguely understood, it is considered a
part of AI.  Once we start understanding the `what,' `how,' and
(sometimes) `why' we no longer consider it a part of AI.  For
example, all robotics used to be part of AI.  Now robotics is a
field unto itself and only the more difficult aspects (certain
manipoulations, object recognition, etc) are within AI anymore.
Similarly so for expert systems.  It used to be that ES were
entirely within the purview of AI.  That was when the AI folks
had no real idea how to do ESs and were trying all sorts of
methods.  Now they understand them and two things have happened:
expert systems are an independant branch of computer science and
people have found that they no longer need to rely on the
(advanced) AI type languages (lisp, etc) to get the job done.

Ironically, this makes AI a field that must make itself obsolete.
As more areas become understood, they will break off and become
their own field.  If not for finding new areas, AI would run out
of things for it to address.

Does this mean it isn't worth while to study AI?  Certainly not.
If for no other reason than AI is the think tank, problem
_finder_ of computer science.  So what if no problem in AI itself
is ever solved?  Many problems that used to be in AI have been,
or are well on their way to being, solved.  Yes, the costs are
high, and it may not look as though much is actually coming out
of AI research except for more questions, but asking the
questions and lookling for the answers in the way that AI does,
is a valid and useful approach.
-- 
Sam Saal         ..!attunix!saal
Vayiphtach HaShem et Peah HaAtone