Xref: utzoo comp.misc:2128 misc.headlines:2531 misc.jobs.misc:1507 talk.rumors:1207
Path: utzoo!mnetor!uunet!husc6!bbn!rochester!udel!burdvax!sdcrdcf!csun!polyslo!jbass
From: jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass)
Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines,misc.jobs.misc,talk.rumors
Subject: Hear no evil, See no evil, Do no evil
Message-ID: <1615@polyslo.UUCP>
Date: 19 Mar 88 19:47:18 GMT
References: <1177@polyslo.UUCP> <2843@fluke.COM> <1223@polyslo.UUCP> <400@lscvax.UUCP>
Distribution: na
Organization: Cal Poly State Univ,CSC Dept,San Luis Obispo,CA 93407
Lines: 62
Summary: Was Doom and Gloom

In article <400@lscvax.UUCP>, ram@lscvax.UUCP (Ric Messier) writes:
> 
> You know, it's funny but I thought this topic was dead but wait a
> minute, here we go again!! Strap yourselves in.

One gets tired of attempting to prove the obvious ... sales of personal
computers will make an abrupt down turn in the next 24 months, most likely
in the next 3 to 9 months. The sales of PC's will drop between 25% and
70% of the current 12-15 million units per year volume in the short term
and level out at between 4 and 7 million units per year with some growth
in the market spurred by occasional technology advances.

There is no current product which will force early obsolence of the
typical 640K 8088 PC running PFS Write or Word Perfect as a typewriter
replacement/augmentor. This typewriter replacement market accounts for
the vast majority of PC systems purchased in the last few years -- and is
the market that has saturated.

I have spent over 300 hours researching similar markets and the distribution
of jobs in the US in attempt to quantify the size of the US Market for
personal computers. Every new way I have examined still projects the market
size to be between 20 million and 30 million units for business users and
a much smaller number of home systems.

I have posted two conclusive deductive arguments for the market down turn,
neither of which have been more than lightly rebutted .... only emotional
replies of the nature "It can not happen". If this is the general level of
critical thinking for computer professionals and management in the US computer
industry, then I made a mistake in thinking these people would like to PLAN
AHEAD rather than crash and burn.

I posted the conclusion and arguments for free as a service to the
industry ... and it was discarded as worthless free advice. At the request
of a friend, the data and computer model are being compiled into a report
that should be available during late April -- price $3,000.00.

I stand by my prediction solidly .. the market place can not support the
current 12-15 million units per year volume. For those who are so out of
touch with the world, or find the critical thinking involved in data analysis
beyond your mental grasps, I present my final argument:

	From USA TODAY, Wed March 16, 1988 page 1B read the box titled "Will
	auto boom go bust?" and article titled "Auto sales rise 6.3% this month"
	
	Note the annual sales volume of 14.7 million units per year for
	cars and light trucks. Note the average sales of about 13.5 million
	units over the last 5 years.

	Justify why computer shipments should stay at the same level ....
	nearly everyone needs a car ...  few people need a computer ...

Again I ask you to present these arguments to your management and ask what this
means for your company's future and YOUR job should the market turn down
abrubtly in the next year. I believe in planning ahead ... your may do as you
wish ... but don't bother flaming at this article ... If you have some
critcal analysis feel free to share it.

Have Fun ..
John Bass
DMS Design (805) 541-1575
EMAIL: polyslo!dmsd!bass
SMAIL: PO Box 12508, San Luis Obispo, CA 93406