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From: kurt@tc.fluke.COM (Kurt Guntheroth)
Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines,misc.jobs.misc,talk.rumors
Subject: Re: Hear no evil, See no evil, Do no evil
Message-ID: <3183@fluke.COM>
Date: 22 Mar 88 17:25:16 GMT
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John Bass is MAD now.  We have refused to believe that the sky is falling,
even though he personally guarantees that he was hit in the head by a piece.

> There is no current product which will force early obsolence of the
> typical 640K 8088 PC running PFS Write or Word Perfect as a typewriter
> replacement/augmentor. This typewriter replacement market accounts for
> the vast majority of PC systems purchased in the last few years -- and is
> the market that has saturated.

This assertion is patently untrue.  Anyone who has recently graduated from
Wordstar to Microsoft Word, Page Maker or any of the various other modern
document formatters and page layout systems can tell you that the 8088 poops
out on page layout problems.  Modern document processors do graphics, multiple
columns, multiple fonts and point sizes.  The graphics requirement alone will
obsolete a significant PCs.  Perhaps Mr Bass makes due with a dumb terminal
connected to an aging mainframe, so the world looks more static to him.

> I stand by my prediction solidly .. the market place can not support the
> current 12-15 million units per year volume. For those who are so out of
> touch with the world, or find the critical thinking involved in data analysis
> beyond your mental grasps, I present my final argument:

As evidence of this, our scholar cites that forum of business acedemia:

>	USA TODAY, Wed March 16, 1988 page 1B read the box titled "Will
>	auto boom go bust?" and article titled "Auto sales rise 6.3% this month"
	
>	Note the annual sales volume of 14.7 million units per year for
>	cars and light trucks. Note the average sales of about 13.5 million
>	units over the last 5 years.

So if computer unit sales only continue to be as good as auto sales (a mature
market with no quantum leaps in technology likely, and stable price/performance
ratios), there will be NO slowdown.

>	Justify why computer shipments should stay at the same level ....
>	nearly everyone needs a car ...  few people need a computer ...

I bet most businesses own far more computers than cars or trucks, both in
number and in dollar value.  I also suspect the rate of replacement of
computers will be higher.  But that's where John and I part company.

I want to add that I personally expect a modest recession sometime next year.
This recession will likely cut into purchases of small computers, just as it
will affect sales of all sorts of capital equipment.  I don't see that
computers will be singled out for an unreasonably large cut.  Computers are
as much part of the fabric of production in this country as milling
machines, light trucks, and carbon paper.  I also see the current production
levels as a little higher than reasonable, maybe 5-15% too high, and I see
the possibility of a temporary decline, concentrated in sales of older models.

Finally it makes me uncomfortable that my management occasionally buys
expensive reports on the business outlook, and therefore might waste $3K on
this report, which they could ignore for free.  Does anyone else but Mr Bass
have any experience with Mr Bass's previous scholarly works or reputation as
a prognosticator?  I would hate to waste my time trying to get management to
read a report I didn't believe in, from a person I had no knowledge in, and
then find out he was not highly regarded by his peers.  His report would
certainly have more appeal if it appeared in the Harvard Business Review,
Wall Street Journal, or some other known source.

Put me down as one of those silly fools who never see the light.
Kurt Guntheroth
Senior Software Engineer
John Fluke Mfg. Co., Inc.

[These opinions are mine alone.  In particular, Fluke management may]
[also have been hit by a piece of sky and not seen fit to tell me.  ]