Xref: utzoo comp.misc:2145 misc.headlines:2559 misc.jobs.misc:1512 talk.rumors:1221 Path: utzoo!mnetor!uunet!husc6!think!ames!amdahl!cerebus!ronc From: ronc@cerebus.UUCP (Ronald O. Christian) Newsgroups: comp.misc,misc.headlines,misc.jobs.misc,talk.rumors Subject: Re: Doom and Gloom, as they say, revisited (computer market fai Message-ID: <640@cerebus.UUCP> Date: 22 Mar 88 19:23:16 GMT References: <1177@polyslo.UUCP> <3052@cup.portal.com> <491@xios.XIOS.UUCP> Reply-To: ronc@cerebus.UUCP (Ronald O. Christian) Organization: Fujitsu America, Inc. Lines: 50 In article <491@xios.XIOS.UUCP> greg@sdn.UUCP (Greg Franks) writes: >The market for TV's, dishwashers, etc is already saturated. A more >applicable comparison is to VCR's. Five years ago (whenever) there were >pratically no consumer VCR's. Today roughly 50% of all households have >them (ref: some consumer article in our local news rag a few months >ago). The market for VCR's is flattening out. Manufacturers have >adapted by cutting the price in hopes of stimulating demand (how much >has a VCR gone up in price in comparison to a Toyota?), or by giving up >completely (i.e. Sony dropping Beta as a consumer tape deck). Sound >familiar? Indeed it does, but one small correction: Sony has not dropped Beta. See the latest issue of Video Review. Sony has just released a new Beta deck that beats the pants off anything else in consumer video. It appears that they are hedging their VCR bets by defining a new marketplace -- pro-sumer, the consumer that wants professional results. There's a new business opening up in video -- small shops that do small scale video productions, from taped want-ads to rock videos. These shops often can't afford the true professional equipment, (MII, U-Matic, Betacam) but must nevertheless produce close-to-professional quality. Hence the pro-sumer marketplace. Note that this marketplace is not concerned about renting movies at 7-11. :-) Perhaps the computer business could recover some sales by searching for new marketplaces, like IBM using their PS/2 as an intellegent SNA terminal. (With the proper adaptor board and software.) Putting a computer on people's desk isn't enough anymore. After they've played with the spreadsheet a few months, it becomes just another expensive paperweight. "What's it *for*?" The Mac, Amiga, IBM PC and Atari have all been tied in to the MIDI music interface. This is a good start. In my opinion, new things like the X-Windows standard will put more PC's to work on people's desks. (Too bad the graphics capability in most of them is so lousy.) The PC market *could* collapse, but it doesn't *have* to. Ron -- Ronald O. Christian (Fujitsu America Inc., San Jose, Calif.) amdahl!cerebus!ronc "Down, boy" "Woof"