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From: news@cit-vax.Caltech.Edu (Usenet netnews)
Newsgroups: sci.space,sci.space.shuttle
Subject: Re: space news from Feb 15 AW&ST
Message-ID: <5919@cit-vax.Caltech.Edu>
Date: 24 Mar 88 02:20:51 GMT
References: <1988Mar18.042452.5673@utzoo.uucp> <993@thumper.bellcore.com>
Organization: California Institute of Technology
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<5856@cit-vax.Caltech.Edu> <1001@thumper.bellcore.com>
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From: kevin@cit-adel.Caltech.Edu (Kevin Van Horn)
Path: cit-adel!kevin

In article <1001@thumper.bellcore.com> karn@thumper.bellcore.com (Phil R.
Karn) writes [in reference to Henry Spencer's comment that the proposed
first-generation missile defense using kinetic-energy weapons would have a man
in the loop]:
>> >Considering that the human involved would have to decide whether to
>> >commit the United States to nuclear war, I would hope that by "human
>> >control" they mean the President of the United States.
>> 
>> What kind of imbecilic nonsense is this?  Deciding whether or not to shoot
>> down something that looks like a missile has nothing to do with committing
>> the United States to a nuclear war...
>
>Take a look at the X-ray laser program, ...

We weren't talking about the X-ray laser program, we were talking about a
system using kinetic energy weapons.  But I'll tackle this anyway.

>An X-ray laser is pumped by the detonation of a nuclear bomb. Deciding to
>shoot down what appears to be a Soviet missile with an X-ray laser therefore
>involves the detonation of a nuclear device in space within line of sight of
>the USSR.

Well... within line of sight of a missile coming from the USSR, which may or
may not entail being within line of sight of the USSR itself.  Either way, you
don't have to be anywhere near the missile to be within line of sight -- for
example, if both the missile and the X-ray laser are 500 miles above the
surface of the earth, the missile can be over 4000 miles away and still be
within line of sight (the U.S. itself is only about 3000 miles from coast to
coast).  And you're going to want your X-ray laser to be a good distance from
its targets anyway, since it has to simultaneously aim its 1000 lasing rods at
as many different targets as it can, and those targets are not going to be
bunched together.

>Considering that many nuclear attack scenarios begin with the
>detonation of nuclear weapons in space near the target country to
>generate EMP and blind sensors, the already paranoid Soviets could well
>believe that a US nuclear attack was underway and respond by launching
>their own missiles in a "pre-emptive" strike.

As already mentioned, the explosion would not take place near the USSR.
Furthermore, X-ray lasers involve the explosion of very small nuclear devices,
whereas for an effective EMP attack you want to use very large nuclear weapons.
The two are very easily distinguished.

In addition, since X-ray lasers are one-shot weapons intended to knock out
~100 targets at a time, they would only only be used against a presumed
full-scale nuclear attack, i.e. a situation in which hundreds or thousands
of launches are observed within minutes of each other.  In such a case you can
be superbly confident that you are indeed observing a full-scale nuclear
attack, and not something else.

>Even a non-nuclear "defensive" weapon, if accidentally used against a
>non-threatening Soviet launch, could create a crisis that could well
>trigger a nuclear war.  Remember that most Soviet launches involve highly
>sensitive military C3I payloads that the Soviets consider important to
>their "deterrent". [...] The Soviets might well feel that
>the "mistake" was in fact a deliberate precursor to a sneak attack, in
>which destroying the opponent's "eyes and ears" is the natural first
>step. Again, the temptation to "pre-empt" might become irresistable.

Come on, give the Soviets credit for *some* modicum of intelligence and
rationality!  Do you really think they're going to push the button over *one*
destroyed C3I launch?  Especially when all of their C3I assets already in
orbit remain untouched?  If the Soviets really did have such itchy trigger
fingers we would have had our nuclear holocaust already.

Kevin S. Van Horn