Path: utzoo!utgpu!water!watmath!clyde!att!osu-cis!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!mailrus!ames!oliveb!3comvax!bridge2!ngg
From: ngg@bridge2.3Com.Com (Norman Goodger)
Newsgroups: comp.sys.mac
Subject: Re: NeXT generation of Macs
Summary: No real Threat I can see...
Message-ID: <143@bridge2.3Com.Com>
Date: 21 Oct 88 00:21:41 GMT
References: <1489@pur-phy>
Organization: 3Com Corp., Mt. View, CA
Lines: 49

In article <1489@pur-phy>, sho@pur-phy (Sho Kuwamoto) writes:
> I know everyone's excited about the NeXT machine, but what are the
> rumors for Apple's direction in the future?  I know they are working
> on a lot of things: sound, IPC, multitasking, NuGraph, and the fabled
> rewrite of the system, but I'm interested to know what actual products
> are on the slate, besides the laptop.  At the moment, it seems like
> the price of an upgrade will be steep, since it would cost me $2000 to
> upgrade to a Mac //x, but after Apple's production capabilities
> increase, and after some portion of Apple's market share is threatened
> by NeXT, the prices might drop.  What kind of machine will Apple have
> out a year and a half from now?  (Maybe Apple should start spreading
> rumors around.  These rumors about the NeXT machine seem to have
> caught the imaginations of a lot of netters...)

I must be missing something, I am sure someone will enlighten me, maybe.
But how is NeXT a threat to Apple? NeXT is selling only to the educational
market, they are not selling to you or me, unless you are enrolled in one
of the schools on the net here. NeXT is not selling to big business, they
are not even shipping yet, won't be in quantity for some months. Also I
must be missing something else, who but the schools are going to buy this
box? Even at $6500, most students I've seen here are moaning that they can't
afford a Mac +, let alone a NeXT box. That doesn't exactly produce a lot of
sales to me...Another thing to me is obvious short comings, no disk drive,
no easy way to transfer data from one system to another, or distribute
software...Granted technologically, its way ahead of Apple at the moment,
provided it stands up and "really" works when shipped. Since very few have
really seen this machine, I think the excitement clouds the issues. the
Developement environment has yet to be proven as something that will really
provide decent applications. Somehow I don't think besides the press saying
that this is a slap in Apple's face, "look what Steve's done", there is no
real threat here. At least not for sometime that I can see. I also get this
little voice telling me that in the quantities NeXT is talking about, less
than 20,000  in the next couple years, thats not exactly going to make a 
serious market to me. Course all the numbers are speculation. I also think
that the $6500 is not going to stay that low, I have a hunch that when
it really gets rolling (if it does) Its going to cost alot more than they
think to manufacture. Its really hard to predict actual costs until you
are really doing it....

As far as Apple rumors. MacWeek has been predicting 2-3 new machines next
year, along with an expanded line of printers...only time will tell if 
either come true. 



-- 
Norm Goodger				SysOp - MacInfo BBS @415-795-8862
3Com Corp.				Co-Sysop FreeSoft RT - GEnie.
Enterprise Systems Division