Path: utzoo!utgpu!attcan!uunet!portal!cup.portal.com!mslater
From: mslater@cup.portal.com (Michael Z Slater)
Newsgroups: comp.arch
Subject: Re: Architecture Wars, again; survey
Message-ID: <11016@cup.portal.com>
Date: 7 Nov 88 06:05:55 GMT
References: <7316@winchester.mips.COM> <75478@sun.uucp> <10770@cup.portal.c
Organization: The Portal System (TM)
Lines: 24

> 18,000 Clipper units shipped to date, making it the largest-volume
> merchant RISC processor

To put this in perspective, Dataquest estimates 1987 68020 shipments at
746,000 and 1987 386 shipments at 710,000.  Shipments for 68020/030 and
386 should be 1.5 to 2 million each in 1988.

At our Microprocessors '89 symposium last week, Nick Tredennick quoted an
article (sorry, I don't remember what article) as saying that Intel
will ship more 386's between coffee break and lunch than all the SPARC guys
combined will ship all year.

In all fairness, SPARC is earlier on the curve than the 020 and 386, but these
numbers do point out that volumes of CISC processors still dwarf those of
RISC processors.  Just as volumes of PCs dwarf volumes of UNIX workstations, 
and low-cost embedded control applications dwarf high-end (32-bit) embedded
control applications.

For RISC processors to reach anywhere near the volumes being projected, UNIX
workstations are going to have to start invading the PC-DOS territory.  And
I don't see them doing that anytime soon.

Michael Slater, Microprocessor Report, mslater@cup.portal.com  415/494-2677
550 California Ave, Suite 320, Palo Alto, CA 94306