Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!munnari!basser!john From: john@basser.oz (John Mackin) Newsgroups: comp.software-eng Subject: Re: ethics Summary: time estimates Message-ID: <1616@basser.oz> Date: 16 Nov 88 15:54:10 GMT References: <1902@daisy.UUCP> <5084@thorin.cs.unc.edu> Organization: Dept of Comp Sci, Uni of Sydney, Australia Lines: 41 In article <5084@thorin.cs.unc.edu>, coggins@coggins.cs.unc.edu (Dr. James Coggins) writes: > >Some activity that some software people could consider unethical: > 2. Engage in what Brooks calls "gutless estimating": > Customer: "How long will it take?" > Programmer: "When do you want it?" > Customer: "Six months from now." > Programmer: (thinking) "My estimates say 12 months minimum but the > customer can't prove that I can't finish in six months, so" > (aloud): "Sure, I can do it in six months." Well, back in the Bad Old Days when I used to work in the commercial world (as a programmer), I would very commonly get asked that dreaded question, `How long will it take?' I knew there was no way I could answer that question with any accuracy, so I developed a method that kept me happy. For those of you faced with this problem I offer the method. I call it `Estimating by Threes'. If you think the task will take under ten minutes, tell them three days. If you think the task will take more than ten minutes but less than an hour, tell them three weeks. If you think the task will take more than an hour but less than a day, tell them three months. Otherwise, tell them three years. You'll be amazed at how often you manage to predict the exact time it will in fact take. John Mackin, Basser Department of Computer Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia john@basser.oz.AU (john%basser.oz.AU@UUNET.UU.NET) {uunet,mcvax,ukc,nttlab}!munnari!basser.oz!john