Path: utzoo!utgpu!watmath!clyde!att!osu-cis!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!mailrus!ncar!ames!decwrl!labrea!polya!shap
From: shap@polya.Stanford.EDU (Jonathan S. Shapiro)
Newsgroups: comp.sys.next
Subject: Re: Next and the competition
Message-ID: <5725@polya.Stanford.EDU>
Date: 18 Dec 88 23:00:44 GMT
References: <2405@ncsuvx.ncsu.edu>
Reply-To: shap@polya.Stanford.EDU (Jonathan S. Shapiro)
Organization: Stanford University
Lines: 50

I confess to hvaing read this with some interest, and at the risk of
getting flamed, I am interested in people's reactions to my own views:

In article <2405@ncsuvx.ncsu.edu> hgm@ncsuvx.ncsu.edu (Hal G. Meeks) writes:
>Article 1061 in comp.sys.next:
>From: T8M-KAUP@FINTUVM.BITNET (Asko Kauppi)
>>5) The NeXT (finally...) 
>>Reading the Byte article about the NeXT machine gave me the same butterflies 
>>that the first Amiga notation couple of years ago did. Me want one| 
>I am going to reserve my opinion on the NeXT box for at least a year; so
>much is up in the air at this point. I suspect it will not be a major
>player in the mini/micro market...

I am not sure that the NeXT machine will be a player.  The reason is
this:

The NeXT box is based on technological innovation, but it hasn't got
very much of that.  Using a greyscale display is not new.  An optical
floppy is very good for some things, and is a neat idea, but it isn't
(today) a viable primary storage medium (too slow), and it certainly
isn't a conceptual revolution in storage.  The DSP chip shows some
real promise, but here again the major areas that it might support
have been well understood for some time.

The novelty of the NeXT machine, and its success or failure, will rest
on NeXT's ability to integrate all of these features in the right way.
This was true in much the same way on the Macintosh.  Fundamentally,
it just isn't clear to me that NeXT knows how to do this.  They may,
they may not.  It is also not clear that they have been able to retain
their people in the way that they have to to pull it all off.

Now mind you, I hope that the box succeeds, but I think the hype has
been overdone in this newsgroup.  Steve Jobs *used* to know that it
was important to have machines ready when you announce.  NeXT hasn't
done that.  The real outcome on the NeXT machine wont't be clear until
it has been around for a while.  As for me, I will wait and see (with
interest). 

>
>6) The Black Horse  (I'm not finished yet..) 
> 
>>Then there's the possibility that something totally unpredictable happens. 
>Like memory chip prices going up drastically. Or market saturation
>occuring.

Market saturation has already happened.  To get something out now you
have to reinvent the market and convince people to move.


Jon