Xref: utzoo comp.windows.misc:913 comp.sys.next:1132 comp.sys.mac:24658 alt.cyberpunk:1235 Path: utzoo!hoptoad!amdcad!apple!rutgers!netnews.upenn.edu!magill From: magill@eniac.seas.upenn.edu.seas.upenn.edu (Operations Manager) Newsgroups: comp.windows.misc,comp.sys.next,comp.sys.mac,alt.cyberpunk Subject: Re: replacing the desktop metaphor Message-ID: Date: 4 Jan 89 12:42:50 GMT References: <4362@pitt.UUCP> <257@gloom.UUCP> <8951@cit-vax.Caltech.Edu> <4939@enterprise.UUCP> Sender: news@netnews.upenn.edu Organization: CETS, University of Pennsylvania Lines: 30 In-reply-to: timd@cognos.uucp's message of 23 Dec 88 15:44:35 GMT Posting-Front-End: GNU Emacs 18.47.3 of Thu Jul 2 1987 on eniac.seas.upenn.edu (berkeley-unix) < It's interesting. Thompson was always referred to as a "futurist", and he < figured that meant he was about 20 years ahead of everybody else. In this < case, he's pretty close. < I and several others around here have often "speculated" upon this topic. While not particularly germane to the DeskTop discussion, it is interesting. We have decided that there are about 5-10, but definately less than 25 persons, on a campus of 18K students and 18K employees who know about and use "the network as a computer", there is a community of probably 10% faculty/staff and 50% students who actively use electronic mail, BITNET listservers, etc. (Engineering is close to 100% for Faculty/Staff/Students, while Hummanities usage is almost non-existant.) We hung some times on these catagories and decided that those of us who were active network users were about 5 years ahead of the electronic mail users, and 5-10 years ahead of everybody else. I've been a member of the World Future Society for quite a few years, and one of the things that emerges constantly is the simple fact that it takes a minimum number of years - on the order of 3-5 from the time a new technology has moved from the Lab to the Factory, for the production lines to fire up and distribute it. So if you add another 5 years for ideas to make it through the lab to the factory floor, the total comes up pretty close to 20 years. -- William H. Magill Manager, PENNnet Operations Planning Data Communications and Computing Services (DCCS) University of Pennsylvania Internet: magill@dccs.upenn.edu magill@eniac.seas.upenn.edu magill@upenn.edu BITnet: magill@pennlrsm