Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!lll-winken!ames!pasteur!ucbvax!pinocchio.encore.com!bzs
From: bzs@pinocchio.encore.com (Barry Shein)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures
Subject: Re: desktop of the future
Message-ID: <8901131708.AA08999@pinocchio.UUCP>
Date: 13 Jan 89 17:08:54 GMT
Sender: daemon@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU
Organization: The Internet
Lines: 46


From: mcvax!ukc!cs.tcd.ie!tcdmath!gwills@uunet.uu.net  (Graham Wills)
>>Seriously, isn't it quaint to look back and think of the folks who saw
>>the first automobiles and remarked "oh, horseless carraiges!", and
>>reflect on how truly limited their vision was?
>>
>>	-Barry Shein, ||Encore||
>
>Why does he think so ?
>What are the crucial differences between autos and carriages which make
>someone who thinks they are similar "quaint" ?
>After all, they have the same basic function, transport; they both need
>regular maintainence, polishing; they inspire(d) similar feelings in their
>owners - affection, pride; they are (were) status symbols; In recreation 
>they are (were) used similarly, for racing, going for a drive in the country;
>etc. etc. etc.

That's perhaps a satisfying, reductionist attitude, but are you really
going to contend that the only difference to society between a horse
and carraige and a car is one goes faster etc?

What about the suburbs? What about the highway industry? What about
the trucking industry and the nationwide commerce it allowed (hmm, ok,
this might be a little less dramatic in Ireland than in the US due to
the geography, I don't know), what about postal delivery and how it
affected everyone's way of doing business?

See, that's the whole point, taking a reductionist attitude I can
argue that there's really no difference (in business) between
computers and a clerk, they both just sort of shuffle files looking
for things and making entries. Would you really try to propose this to
someone like American Express?

I can argue that steel beams are just a stronger form of cast-iron
girder which is just a stronger form of wood beams, but where were the
wooden skyscrapers and the ensuing centralization of commerce they
permitted?

Is a nuclear bomb just a bigger bang? Or has something slightly more
happened, some deeper effect? etc.

My point is methodological, the clue to the future is not so much in
looking at how things are the same, it's trying to develop the vision
to see how things are different!

	-Barry Shein, ||Encore||