Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!husc6!cmcl2!rutgers!att!cbnews!military@att.att.com
From: military@att.att.com (Bill Thacker)
Newsgroups: sci.military
Subject: Re: US sealift capability
Message-ID: <3336@cbnews.ATT.COM>
Date: 21 Jan 89 02:07:48 GMT
Sender: military@cbnews.ATT.COM
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Approved: military@att.att.com



wbralick%dragonlady@afit-ab.arpa (William A. Bralick) writes:
>Which brings up a point.  What is the status of our merchant marine?
>I seem to recall (hazily) comments to the effect that our sealift
>capability is a far cry from what it would have to be to support a
>protracted conflict.  Comments?

From U.S. Naval Institute _Procedings_, December, 1988 (V114/12/1030):

"Soviet Subs vs. the Resupply of NATO" 
by Lieutenant Commander Michael J. Gouge, U.S. Naval Reserve

Table 1. Capabilities of Submarines, Surface Ships, and Merchant Ships

Submarines			    WWII           Now

Speed Differential 
(relative to convoys)		-5 to +1 kts	+5 to +15 kts
				(surfaced)      (SSN submerged)
Submerged Endurance		12-24 hrs	unlimited
Passive Sonar			poor		good
Operating Depth			200-500 ft	much better
Detection Probability		poor		poor
Torpedo Performance		fair-poor	good-fair
Number Available		50-150 (German) 225 (Soviet)


Surface Ships

Tactical Speed			25-32 kts	25-32 kts
Sensor Performance		poor		fair
Weapons Performance		fair		fair
Number Available		hundreds	40-75 (+heli's)


Merchant Ships

Speed (avg)			10-15 kts	12-17 kts
Maneuverability			fair-poor	fair-poor
Survivability			poor		poor
Tonnage per Ship		4200-5200 GRT	19000 deadweight tons



The author estimates about 600 merchant ships available to NATO during
the first few weeks. He further presents a model which estimates
approximately 50% losses to these ships in the first 10 days, along
with 12 escorts sunk, against the loss of 52 of 70 Soviet subs (estimating
that 20% of the Soviet sub fleet would be detailed for convoy attacks).

USNI _Proceedings_ discusses mercantile strategy quite frequently;
this article is but the most recent.  I have only skimmed it, myself,
and so can't really comment on the suitability of the model; nonetheless,
it does paint a grim picture.



-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  - 
Bill Thacker      moderator, sci.military      military@att.att.com

"War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life
or death; the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be 
thoroughly studied."   -  Sun Tzu