Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!lll-winken!ames!ucsd!rutgers!mit-eddie!uw-beaver!humpback!szabonj
From: szabonj@humpback (Nick Szabo)
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: Colonies vs probes (was Re: NSS Board membership)
Message-ID: <102@beaver.cs.washington.edu>
Date: 24 Jan 89 07:28:22 GMT
References: <6145@thorin.cs.unc.edu> <1989Jan15.095906.18357@utzoo.uucp> <92@beaver.cs.washington.edu> <1989Jan18.043708.27547@utzoo.uucp> <1989Jan18.102436.12838@cs.rochester.edu> <1989Jan20.193344.9479@utzoo.uucp> <10443@well.UUCP>
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Reply-To: szabonj@humpback.UUCP (Nick Szabo)
Organization: U of Washington, CSCI, Seattle
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In article <10443@well.UUCP> tneff@well.UUCP (Tom Neff) writes:
>I propose five phases of human
>development in space:
>
>	1. unmanned probes, 
>	2. manned visits, 
>	3. manned research stations,
>	4. semiautomated resource extraction (mining, power, whatever),
>	5. full scale "residential" colonization.  
>
>There are also four "zones" of space for the purposes
>of discussing exploration: 
>
>	A. earth orbit (LEO out to GEO);
>	B. cislunar including the lunar surface; 
>	C. the nearer minor planets including Mars and Venus
>	   (and perhaps the asteroid belt), 
>	D. Far Away (Jupiter and beyond).

We are currently in phase 1 for all zones and phase 2 for LEO.  Phase 4 
can be reached without phases 2 and 3.  There should  also be a phase "1a", 
fully automated resource extraction.  We are currently operating in this 
phase with regard to information resources (remote sensing, communications, 
etc.)  Material and energy resource extraction may also operate in phase 
1a for a time, depending on available technology.

Note that the energy differences between the Earth's surface and zone A
are large compared with the energy differences of the other zones.
Near earth asteroids should be classified in zone B, as they roughly
correspond in energy level to the lunar surface.  In many situations,
the energy differences between zones B, C, and D, will be outweighed
by other concerns, such as the type and quality of environments
(eg minerals) available in the different parts of each zone.
Furthermore, zone D has more potential resources than C, and C than B.
We must conclude, with the knowledge available today, that each zone is
roughly of equal concern for explorations leading to space development.

In summary, phases 1, 1a, 4, and 5 are the most important to space
colonization, where 1a is *fully* automated resource extraction.
Phases 2 and 3 are expensive alternatives of last resort.  All zones
are important to space exploration. 
--------------------------------
Nick Szabo              szabonj@fred.cs.washington.edu