Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!mailrus!cornell!uw-beaver!humpback!szabonj
From: szabonj@humpback (Nick Szabo)
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: Transmitter failure on Phobos II
Message-ID: <105@beaver.cs.washington.edu>
Date: 27 Jan 89 22:36:29 GMT
References: <8901250634.AA26978@ll-vlsi.arpa> <9265@cit-vax.Caltech.Edu>
Sender: news@beaver.cs.washington.edu
Reply-To: szabonj@humpback.UUCP (Nick Szabo)
Organization: U of Washington, CSCI, Seattle
Lines: 35

In article <9265@cit-vax.Caltech.Edu> kevin@cit-vax.UUCP (Kevin S. Van Horn) writes:
>
>I can't help but wonder if Phobos I and Phobos II
>are in fact doing fine and the Soviets are only claiming failures so that they
>don't have to share the information from them with anyone. 

The Soviets had planned to transmit much of their data through NASA's
DSN (I helped schedule them time while I was at JPL).  This would have 
necessitated them sharing it in real time--no chance for them to look at the
pictures and say 'oops, we don't want Capitalists to see that!'.  I'm not 
sure if the weakened Phobos II transmitter will still use the DSN.  (I
can call my old boss and find out, if anyone's interested).

The Phake Phobos Phlub-Up theory must explain either a sophisticated con
job in planning use of the DSN in the first place, or a change of heart
before either probe got anywhere near Phobos.  It must also explain how
DSN technicians could be fooled by fake probe specs.

If both probes are still transmitting at full power, it may be possible for 
DSN or smaller dishes aimed at Phobos to detect the signals.  If memory
serves, Phobos has a roughly equatorial orbit of 7 hours, 26 minutes.
Transmissions will occur when Phobos is on this side of Mars, Mars is in
view of the Soviet 70-meter dishes, and the not-so-flexible Soviet probe 
antennas manage to point themselves towards Earth.  Since U.S. dishes
will be in view of Mars on an almost opposite schedule of the Soviets', the
Madrid DSN 70-meter and a Japanese 64-meter come to mind as the best
antennas for detecting Phobos Phraud.  Full data on the Phobos orbit
and the Soviet station view periods is available at JPL.  






Nick Szabo              szabonj@fred.cs.washington.edu