Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!mailrus!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!ucbvax!VIOLET.BERKELEY.EDU!mwm From: mwm@VIOLET.BERKELEY.EDU (Mike Meyer, I'll think of something yet) Newsgroups: comp.society.futures Subject: Re: Taking stock... Message-ID: <8902172216.AA13074@violet.berkeley.edu> Date: 17 Feb 89 22:16:03 GMT Sender: daemon@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU Organization: The Internet Lines: 118 >> >The point is obvious, organizations which have built their empires by >> >providing MIPS are, in most cases, doomed... Barry, that's ambiguous. There are two types of such organizations - those who sell Big Iron, and those who administer and run same for some organization. Those in the first group seem to be switching to selling smaller systems quite handily. Those in the second group aren't in quite that bad a shape. Let's look at Universities, because that's what I'm familiar with as large bureaucracies (I tend to work for small firms when I'm in the real world). Right now, computing needs for any given department can be met in any of five different ways: 1) Buy and administer a Unix box. Not many departments have the expertise to do that. 2) Buy a Unix box, and let someone else administer it. Currently, this is slightly cash-intensive for some departments, but for some it works well. 3) Buy and administer one or more PC-class machines. This is becoming increasingly popular. 4) Buy and let someone else administer the PC-class machines. This isn't much used, because the cost of the administer greatly outweighs the cost (and value) of the machine. 5) Rent time on someone elses box. Now, consider how the advent of super-mini & faster small boxes is going to affect each of those options. 1) No change, except they'll get more power. But these folks aren't buying services from the MIPS-providers anyway. 2) Once again, no change - except they'll be able to afford more power. This may encourage some of the MIPS providers to start providing the service of administering machines. 3) Once again - I can't see much of a change, unless those cheap super-minis become as easy to administer as a PC. 4) Here we see a real difference - the value of the machine will go way up, so it will become cost-effective for more people to take that route. This may grow by as much as an order of magnitude; which will still leave it very small. 5) No change, except that "someoene else" gets to buy more MIPS for less, which will hopefully be passed on to the customers. As you can see, the thing that will save the "Computer Center" is going to be the expertise needed to run those super-minis. If they can make the step to providing those services on a box someone else owns (or renting a box to someone else "wholesale"), they will stay in business. As was mentioned by someone else: >> Most MIS groups have built their empires on accounting and services, not >> on MIPS. You're still going to need someone to work out the corporate >> licencing on Lotus 1-2-3, not to mention storing the backup tapes. Those groups can also stay in business by providing backup services for servers, and by doing the paperwork for dealing with site licenses for software. Here at UCB, the computer center is already doing: 1) Wholesale leasing of machines to others. 2) Administering machines for others. 3) Running clusters of workstations. 4) Running servers for clusters that belong to someone else (thus providing them with backup&restore services). 5) Providing software for remote mounting or use to the campus (i.e. - an NNTP server available to anyone on campus). 6) Providing consulting, software and the interface for "university pricing" on PC-class machines. Finally, there are some services that just won't go away. There will be departments that just don't want to - or can't afford - to deal with any machines in their office. They will wish to buy time from someone else, and will buy either time on a workstation cluster, or on a traditional timesharing box. Likewise, there are things that many departments can't afford - like a phototypesetter. And of course, someone has to be responsible for he network that lets people get to all those ervices. Providing these things will continue to stay in the computer center. There is one group I failed to mention - those who need deep MIPS (as opposed to broad MIPS), who are renting from someone else because they can't afford to buy a machine big enough to meet there needs. The new class of super-minis will cause that group to shrink as more can afford something to meet there needs. If you've got a Cray running timesharing with to large a load, then having your own CPU in the 10-50 MIPS range might get you results in real-time faster than running them through the Cray. It's going to be interesting. I don't think any major manufacturers, or any large MIS organizations are going to have serious problems. They may have to reorganize and reorient themselves, but that's about it.