Newsgroups: sci.space
Path: utzoo!henry
From: henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer)
Subject: Re: US/USSR costs
Message-ID: <1989Mar17.185145.2283@utzoo.uucp>
Organization: U of Toronto Zoology
References: <8903170353.AA25291@cmr.icst.nbs.gov>
Date: Fri, 17 Mar 89 18:51:45 GMT

In article <8903170353.AA25291@cmr.icst.nbs.gov> roberts@CMR.ICST.NBS.GOV (John Roberts) writes:
>... It is probable that the cost to launch a person into orbit is
>less than that of the US, but by how much? I suspect that the quoted price
>of $10 million for a launch is heavily subsidized.

At optimistic US launch prices ($3000/lb), $10M will put 3300 lbs into
orbit.  I don't know offhand just how much a Soyuz weighs, but a ton and
a half does not sound like too little to be one person's share of a three-
man spacecraft.  Given that the Soviets almost certainly have rather lower
launch costs than the US -- for one thing, they mass-produce most of the
hardware -- I find it hard to see how they can be losing money on it.

>There are at least three
>plausible incentives for maintaining an artificially low rate: 
>...
> - Economies of scale: The ability to maintain a high volume of launches
>     and to accelerate the learning curve (and possibly to discourage the
>     competition) can make it economically attractive to sell products or
>     services for less than the actual cost...

I rather doubt that the Soviets are expecting enough of a rush of Western
customers to significantly improve their existing economies of scale.
We're talking about a space program that has a launch every three or four
*days*, remember.

>Similarly, the Energiya is a fine booster, and has enjoyed two demonstration
>launches, but this does not guarantee that it is not fabulously expensive
>to build and launch.

Energia costs are an open question, since it's a new booster using some
new technology.  I would note, however, that (a) cost per pound to orbit
for the Saturn V was not significantly higher than current US launchers,
and (b) Energia is supposedly already committed to production volumes
(first batch of 50) that most Western launcher manufacturers can only
dream about.
-- 
Welcome to Mars!  Your         |     Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology
passport and visa, comrade?    | uunet!attcan!utzoo!henry henry@zoo.toronto.edu