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From: colwell@mfci.UUCP (Robert Colwell)
Newsgroups: sci.space.shuttle
Subject: NASA now says odds are 1 in 78
Message-ID: <773@m3.mfci.UUCP>
Date: 13 Apr 89 12:46:05 GMT
Sender: colwell@mfci.UUCP
Reply-To: colwell@mfci.UUCP (Robert Colwell)
Organization: Multiflow Computer Inc., Branford Ct. 06405
Lines: 14
References:


Front page news in NY Times last weekend:  NASA now estimates odds of losing
another shuttle are 1 in 78 per launch.  I guess they must have tweaked a
few reliability models to account for this change from 1 in 100,000 down to
1 in 78 :-).  It's also worth noting how close this new estimate is to what
Richard Feynmann came up with.  The article says these new odds are causing
major head-holding within NASA, because they change the predicted likelihood
of another lost shuttle in this century from "not gonna happen" to highly
likely, maybe even two more lost.

Bob Colwell               ..!uunet!mfci!colwell
Multiflow Computer     or colwell@multiflow.com
175 N. Main St.
Branford, CT 06405     203-488-6090