Path: utzoo!utgpu!watmath!watdragon!gvcormack
From: gvcormack@watdragon.waterloo.edu (Gordon V. Cormack)
Newsgroups: ont.general
Subject: Re: Lawbreakers (was Radar Detectors (was Highway Driving Rules))
Message-ID: <13935@watdragon.waterloo.edu>
Date: 18 May 89 17:38:14 GMT
References: <9584@watcgl.waterloo.edu> <3217@looking.UUCP> <3225@looking.UUCP> <89May17.145618edt.11073@ephemeral.ai.toronto.edu>
Organization: U of Waterloo, Ontario
Lines: 37

In article <89May17.145618edt.11073@ephemeral.ai.toronto.edu>, steeg@ai.toronto.edu ("Evan W. Steeg") writes:
> 
>   As for my documentation, I admit to having posted without firm
> research into the issue.  It is not "emotional" factors which led me
> to my statements, however.  (As a matter of fact, I am not only *not*
> afraid to drive fast, I *love* to go fast, on land sea, or air!)

Perhaps not "emotional", but our intuition of risks (and any other
probabilistic phenomena) can be very wrong.  Only carefully controlled
studies can demonstrate risks.  In my opinion, no study exists that
shows 130 km/h is measurably more dangerous than 100 km/h on an
uncongested limited access freeway.

Here is some intuition that might show speed decreases risk:

   (a) driver inattention is the primary cause of accidents
       increased speed demands more attention 
       increased speed is more interesting and prevents distraction

   (b) on long trips (such as freeway travel), risk of accident 
       increases with time on the road.  Increased speed decreases
       time on the road.


In any event, even the claimed risks of speeding are VERY VERY much
smaller than the documented risks of (a) driving at night  (b) driving
in the rain  (c) taking the same trip twice (d) riding a motorcycle, 
all of which we think are perfectly acceptable risks.  The choice of
which risks are acceptable and which aren't is purely political.

BTW, I believe a U.S. insurance study [sorry, can't reproduce the
reference] has concluded that Radar-detector owners have fewer accidents
than average.

-- 
Gordon V. Cormack     CS Dept, University of Waterloo, Canada N2L 3G1
gvcormack@waterloo.EDU  gvcormack@uwaterloo.CA  gvcormac@water.BITNET