Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!rutgers!att!westmark!dave
From: dave@westmark.UUCP (Dave Levenson)
Newsgroups: comp.dcom.modems
Subject: Re: Where is modem progress?
Message-ID: <1400@westmark.UUCP>
Date: 25 May 89 12:25:57 GMT
References: <78700004@p.cs.uiuc.edu>
Organization: Westmark, Inc., Warren, NJ, USA
Lines: 39

In article <78700004@p.cs.uiuc.edu>, gillies@p.cs.uiuc.edu writes:

> 1.5 years ago cheapo external 2400-baud modems were selling for
> $180-$220.  Now the cheapest 2400-baud modems are selling for about
> $130.

> My question is, when will faster modems replace the 2400-baud
> standard?  It's been a couple of YEARS and the progress does not seem
> great.  I expected that by now, 4800 baud modems would be standard.
> Where are these modems?  How much do they cost?  Why don't they cost
> ~$250 by now?


I would suggest that you read this newsgroup!  Look at the
discussion surrounding the several 9600 and 19,200 and faster modems
currently on the market.  Why anyone would bother with 4800 at this
point is beyond me.

Predicting the future is always risky, but at the risk of having to
eat a few words in a year or two, I will predict that two current
needs will be met in the near future:  A standard for high-speed
modems will be adopted, and they'll get less expensive. 

Today, a 9600 or faster modem costs well over $1,000 (yes, I know
they are sometimes discounted to around $600 - $800).  The bigger
problem with buying one is that there are several incompatible
families of them.  I would prefer to sit on the sidelines and talk
2400 bps until there is a high-speed standard as universal as the
current crop of 1200 and 2400 speed units.  I would also expect the
prices to come down as the market expands.  When that happens, your
2400 modem will probably be sold used at computer flea markets for
$20 or so -- as 300-speed units are today.

Progress?  It's usually not visible until it's already happened.

-- 
Dave Levenson
{uunet | rutgers | att}!westmark!dave	
...the man in the mooney