Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!rutgers!att!cbnews!military
From: pnelson@antares.Tymnet.COM (Phil Nelson)
Newsgroups: sci.military
Subject: Re: Nuclear Devastation
Message-ID: <6900@cbnews.ATT.COM>
Date: 26 May 89 02:52:12 GMT
Sender: military@cbnews.ATT.COM
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Approved: military@att.att.com



From: pnelson@antares.Tymnet.COM (Phil Nelson)
Summary: "traditionally calculated" wrong
Message-Id: <455@antares.UUCP>
Date: 25 May 89 05:14:00 GMT
References: <6844@cbnews.ATT.COM>
Reply-To: pnelson@antares.UUCP (Phil Nelson)
Organization: Tymnet QSATS, San Jose CA
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In article <6844@cbnews.ATT.COM> hall@tut.cis.ohio-state.edu (john hall) writes:

>On the generic quality of "destroy the world n  times" statements.
>
>To the best of my knowledge this was traditionally calculated as:
>
>( Hiroshima + Nagasaki explosive power /  deaths from same) *
>( explosive power used in scenario / worlds population ).
>

 This is obviously a silly way to calculate; first, the number of deaths
are unlikely to be directly related to be related to the explosive power;
since the explosion occurs in cubic space, and the population is on a plane,
the area of destruction is proportional to the 2/3 power of explosive
force. Second, even that only applies to that part of the population in
cities. So after about 1/2 the population, who knows?

 Of course, some may argue, and I think many unconciously assume, that
everything that matters is contained within cities. Perhaps they are
right, but I doubt it.

>On Nuclear Winter: Ben Bova has a story where the US and USSR know
>the limit on nuclear winter, the USSR launches a strike just under
>the threshold, meaning a US retaliation kills the world.

 I have not read the story, but it occurs to me that this strategy will
work if enough of the leadership of the US _believes_ the nuclear winter
hypothesis, regardless of whether the hypothesis is correct (unless they
decide to retaliate anyway).

-- 
Phil Nelson at (but not speaking for)                  OnTyme:NSC.P/Nelson
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