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From: myerston@cts.sri.com
Newsgroups: comp.dcom.telecom
Subject: Re: Fiber Optics and ESS??
Message-ID: <2193@accuvax.nwu.edu>
Date: 15 Dec 89 16:19:00 GMT
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X-Telecom-Digest: Volume 9, Issue 575, message 11 of 13

When I read Marvin Sibu's original comment (No fiber to the home for a
decade (at least)) I thought he was being wildly optimistic.  Now
Brian Capouch sees it within 5 years.  Opinions being what they are...
Here is mine:

Facts:  [Maybe Factoids :-)]

o  We are a long way from rudimentary steps like digital local loops to
provide even "ISDN-like" services.  Read the actual NUMBERS behind the
trials, announcements and PR BS.

o  While fiber may be getting cheaper vis-a-vis copper the terminal
equipment isn't.  How is the fiber going to support grammy's black 500
POTS set?.  Lets see... a fiber network interface, a fiber mux, a
fiber-to-copper converter, an ISDN Terminal Adapter... plus, of course
an uninterruptable power source.

o  Market tests show that most of the general public is not as
impressed as us techies by things like HDTV.  How many people do you
know have megabuck TVs connected to rabbit ears or tolerate third rate
CATV systems?  Check the history of Teletex services, bank-at-home and
interactive video in the US.

I wish it were not so, but I think that fiber-to-the-home or even its
cousin fiber-to-the-curb are much more than 10 years away.  I doubt if
things like ISDN, HDTV standards, or even Calling-Party ID ( :-) )
will be settled by the year 2000.

Of course, the 37th re-incarnation of the AT&T Picture Phone will be
"just over the horizon" by the year 2000.

Just an opinion.