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From: prohaska%lapis@Sun.COM (J.R. Prohaska)
Newsgroups: comp.groupware
Subject: Re: interesting groupware reference
Message-ID: <129710@sun.Eng.Sun.COM>
Date: 29 Dec 89 06:34:44 GMT
References: <10211@zodiac.ADS.COM>
Sender: news@sun.Eng.Sun.COM
Reply-To: prohaska@sun.UUCP (J.R. Prohaska)
Organization: Sun Microsystems, Mountain View
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In article <10211@zodiac.ADS.COM> Metafont Consultant Account writes:
-- 
-- The science fiction novel "David's Sling" (author's last name Stieger
-- or Steiger; I lent out my copy) contains a prominent discussion of a
-- very desirable piece of groupware, a mechanism for achieving consensus
-- of a large group by considering in an orderly manner all pertinent
-- points of view with machine assistance.
-- 
-- Kent, the (bionic) man from xanth, now available

I have not read David Sling's, but it makes me think of Delphi.  This
is something I first read "Lives of a Cell" (I think) by Lewis Thomas
in an essay of his "On Committees."  I heard it figured prominently in
Shockwave Rider, but I don't remember learning much about it there.
Still, Bruner's profuse acknowledgements of Toffler made me wonder if
he of course got it from Toffler.  Future Shock does indeed have some
obscure reference to it, which I haven't run down yet.

It's apparently a method for predicting the future by asking a bunch
of experts.  This method was devised, what, 25 years ago?  It sounds
like a perfect match for email, newsgroups, groupware, but was devised
long before any of this was even within shouting distance!

The goal of the method was to get the group of informed people to
converge in their prognostications.  A Facilitator devised a
questionnaire and had each person fill it out and return it to him.
These were copied and distributed to all.  Then a second round took
place where everyone answered the questionnaire again.  Apparently,
after a small number of cycles, a fairly useful consensus often
emerged that subsequently proved to be largely on target.

I'm talking more than I know here.  Sounds like some kind of Focus
Group?  Interesting though.
	J.R. Prohaska
	Sun Microsystems, Mountain View, California  (415) 336 2502
	Domain:  prohaska@sun.com
	USnail:  Box 9022, Stanford, CA  94305