Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!clyde.concordia.ca!uunet!samsung!think!ames!zodiac!saturn!levitt
From: levitt@saturn.ADS.COM (Tod Levitt)
Newsgroups: comp.groupware
Subject: Re: interesting groupware reference
Message-ID: <10245@zodiac.ADS.COM>
Date: 1 Jan 90 01:12:13 GMT
References: <10211@zodiac.ADS.COM> <129710@sun.Eng.Sun.COM>
Sender: news@zodiac.ADS.COM
Organization: Advanced Decision Systems, Mt. View, CA (415) 960-7300
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In article <129710@sun.Eng.Sun.COM> prohaska@sun.UUCP (J.R. Prohaska) writes:
>...
>-- very desirable piece of groupware, a mechanism for achieving consensus
>-- of a large group by considering in an orderly manner all pertinent
>-- points of view with machine assistance.
>
>I have not read David Sling's, but it makes me think of Delphi.  
>...
>It's apparently a method for predicting the future by asking a bunch
>of experts.  This method was devised, what, 25 years ago?  It sounds
>like a perfect match for email, newsgroups, groupware, but was devised
>long before any of this was even within shouting distance!
>...

It's my understanding that the Delphi method of reaching consensus (for a
group of humans) was developed by Professor Norman Dalkey, now at UCLA. It
was not specifically aimed at "predicting the future". In fact, the research
was funded, I believe, by DoD, for use in policy making.