Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!mailrus!uwm.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!brutus.cs.uiuc.edu!apple!arc!steve From: steve@arc.UUCP (Steve Savitzky) Newsgroups: comp.society.futures Subject: Re: Looking Backwards Message-ID: <752@arc.UUCP> Date: 3 Jan 90 19:35:31 GMT References: <9001010220.AA17906@world.std.com> Reply-To: steve@arc.UUCP (Steve Savitzky) Organization: Advansoft Research Corp, Santa Clara, CA Lines: 75 In article josh@klaatu.rutgers.edu (J Storrs Hall) writes: >The keyboard will go the way of the card reader. Voice-and-pointer >will be standard; the pointer may be a dataglove or merely a camera >pointed at your hand. You have to have something to do with that >100 mips, after all. I just have to respond to this. WRONG. Think what it would be like on an airplane with everyone muttering to their pocket computer. Think what office cubicles would be like. Try editing a program over the phone (I've done it). o Voice I/O will be useful only where keyboards and screens are not. Voice will be used by children and other illiterates, and where both hands are needed for something else, as when operating a vehicle or other machinery. o Voice mail will largely be replaced by text-oriented email, not the other way around. o Pocket computers will generally use handwriting recognition on their touch-sensitive screens, rather than voice inputs. o Full-sized keyboards will be a ubiquitous accessory. People will try to "type" using datagloves, but the lack of tactile feedback will make this unsatisfactory in most cases. Deaf people fluent in sign language will have an advantage in cyberspace. Here are a few more random predictions: o Pocket computers will have a full-sized, touch-sensitive screen. They will approximate a smart pad of paper, at which point almost everyone who now carries a notebook around will want one. o The standard lap/desk-top computer will be 8.5x11x.5 inches. The display will go all the way to the edge, so larger displays can be built up by tiling. o Pocket computers + _partially_transparent_ eyephones + locators + cellular networks will permit cyberspace to be overlaid on the real world. This will permit virtual nametags (title bars for people), virtual costumes, virtual street signs, and the like. o High-quality multi-media or hypermedia documents will prove to be as expensive to produce as movies or grand operas. Only a few will be produced before interactive virtual realities make them obsolete. o Virtual realities will become a major form of entertainment. o There will never be a standard representation for hypertext documents. Instead, there will be a standardized library of _access_routines_ that permit _anything_ to be viewed as a collection of object-attribute associations. o Books stored in centralized repositories (e.g. Library of Congress) will be downloaded once and cached locally by each user, so as to avoid repeat access fees and to take advantage of bulk data rates. o The copyright laws will be overhauled, probably more than once. o Attempts will be made to license and/or certify programmers and/or software. At least one will probably succeed. Entertainment software will remain unregulated, with the result that CAD packages, word processors, spreadsheets, and the like will end up being packaged as games. o Attempts will be made to prevent the development of artificial intelligences. Opponents will be in the amusing position of trying to legislate against something they claim is impossible in the first place. -- \ Steve Savitzky \ ADVANsoft Research Corp \ REAL hackers use an AXE! \ steve@arc.UUCP \ 4301 Great America Pkwy \ #include \ arc!steve@apple.COM \ Santa Clara, CA 95954 \ 408-727-3357 \__________________________________________________________________________