Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!mailrus!ncar!jsloan@handies.ucar.edu From: jsloan@handies.ucar.edu (John Sloan,8292,X1243,ML44E) Newsgroups: comp.society.futures Subject: Re: Looking Backwards Message-ID: <5871@ncar.ucar.edu> Date: 3 Jan 90 23:35:15 GMT References: <752@arc.UUCP> Sender: news@ncar.ucar.edu Lines: 109 From article <752@arc.UUCP>, by steve@arc.UUCP (Steve Savitzky): > In article josh@klaatu.rutgers.edu (J Storrs Hall) writes: >>The keyboard will go the way of the card reader. Voice-and-pointer >>will be standard; : > I just have to respond to this. WRONG. : > o Pocket computers will generally use handwriting recognition on their > touch-sensitive screens, rather than voice inputs. Similar to the pocket computers portrayed in _The Mote in God's Eye_, the SF novel by Niven and Pournelle. The computers were apparently about the size of a pocket calculator with their entire front surface covered with a touch sensitive LCD-like display screen. We already see on the market at least one calculator with a touch sensitive LCD display on which you can write and store diagrams. My JVC stereo receiver has a touch sensitive LCD screen on its universal remote control; depending on what you want to do, it redraws a new control panel with different buttons and labels. The technology that Steve describes above appears to be limited mainly by handwriting recognition, which _is_ a difficult problem. I must point out, though, that there are a lot of folks like me who can type faster than they can write by hand, and with less fatigue. For pocket computers, a writing interface is acceptable (probably preferred) but in general will not replace a standard sized keyboard for text-intensive applications. > o Full-sized keyboards will be a ubiquitous accessory. People will > try to "type" using datagloves, but the lack of tactile feedback > will make this unsatisfactory in most cases. Deaf people fluent in > sign language will have an advantage in cyberspace. One of my wife's hobbies is learning AMSLAN (sp?) and we were discussing this just the other day. The dataglove is an obvious interface for either teaching sign language (offering graphical feedback to the wearer), or for interpretation (the deaf user wears two datagloves... on the screen or perhaps though a speaker comes natural language text; with sufficient bandwidth you could use this technique for a deaf user to communicate over a network). > o Pocket computers will have a full-sized, touch-sensitive screen. > They will approximate a smart pad of paper, at which point almost > everyone who now carries a notebook around will want one. Similar to the newspads portrayed in the movie _2001: A Space Oddesy_ by Kubrick. > o The standard lap/desk-top computer will be 8.5x11x.5 inches. The > display will go all the way to the edge, so larger displays can be > built up by tiling. Just setting the computers side by side against one another will be enough to integrate their displays and data paths. Connections will be made optically. > o Pocket computers + _partially_transparent_ eyephones + locators + > cellular networks will permit cyberspace to be overlaid on the real > world. This will permit virtual nametags (title bars for people), > virtual costumes, virtual street signs, and the like. Poor folks like me will wear data glasses. The wealthy will have the necessary hardware wired into their skulls, integrated into contact lenses that offer an "eyes-up" display across their entire visual field. A favorite prank will be to integrate a virtual object into their visual field as if it were real. Again, similar technology exists in the instruments integrated into the helmets of military chopper pilots, who see a virtual reality when flying with limited visibility. > o Attempts will be made to prevent the development of artificial > intelligences. Opponents will be in the amusing position of trying > to legislate against something they claim is impossible in the first > place. As artificial intelligences grow smarter and smarter, our definition of intelligence will change, making this a moving target. For example, no one now believes that playing grand master chess is _necessarily_ a sign of intelligence. Twenty years ago this was not the case. It may be that the definition of intelligence will be "that which machines cannot do"... which may come to be those essential human qualities such as love, sacrifice, artistry, etc. or simply those cognitive activities that we haven't yet learned to program. On a darker note: People will be cryogenically stored for two reasons: so that they may be restored should a cure for their disease be found, AND so that they may provide a supply of tissue-compatible body parts to their heirs. Cryo-stored corpses will become part of their own estate, and law suits will result when a person with a terminal illness knows that they have a relative in cryo-suspension (waiting for a cure) with the needed body parts. Laws will be established to determine the priority of organ-ownership. Hacking with virtual realities will become a major problem. Computer generated graphics (both stills and animation) indistinguishable from reality will be a major source of abuse in the advertising industry and in politics (see films of Congressman X in bed with Y!). The ability to confirm what is real and what is not will become an important issue. If folks think these dramatical reinactments on the news are a problem now, wait until the "actors" are computer generated reconstructions of the real people. John Sloan NCAR/SCD NSFnet: jsloan@ncar.ucar.edu P.O. Box 27588 P.O. Box 3000 +1 303 497 1243 AMA#515306 Lakewood CO 80227 Boulder CO 80307 +1 303 232 8678 DoD#000011 Logical Disclaimer: belong(opinions,jsloan).belong(opinions,_):-!,fail.