Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!mailrus!shadooby!samsung!cs.utexas.edu!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!att!oucsace!bchurch
From: bchurch@oucsace.cs.OHIOU.EDU (Bob Church)
Newsgroups: comp.sys.apple
Subject: Re: Educomputing 2000
Summary: Unpredictable future
Message-ID: <962@oucsace.cs.OHIOU.EDU>
Date: 30 Dec 89 05:10:04 GMT
References: <7143@shlump.nac.dec.com>
Organization: Ohio University CS Dept., Athens
Lines: 38

In article <7143@shlump.nac.dec.com>, erickson@mfgmem.dec.com writes:
> 
>         This is  a  call  for SPECULATION regarding the grade school/high
>         school educational computing environment of the year 2000.

As impossible as it seems to predict this far ahead in the computer world I
would like to make one observation. I think that the greatest threat to Apple's
hold on the K-12 market will come as a result of IBM's release of OS/2 and their
new bus architecture. I could just leave off here and let the flames roll in 
but here is my reason for believing this. It's been my experience that the 
majority of administrators in education think in terms of two computers,
IBM's or Apples. They tend to opt for a $1500 Apple over a $4500 IBM.
( very rough estimates on the prices here, it's been a long time since 
I bought a new machine :-) ). Clones are unheard of. This, I feel, is due
to the fact that the clones are made by a lot of smaller companies, or at
least companies who's names aren't synonymous with computers. This may all
change. The new IBM architecture and OS have infuriated so many people that
seven of the largest clone manufacturers have banded together to keep the fire
burning for MS-DOS and the old data bus. This will probably result in greater
compatibility and, more importantly, a place in the spotlight. When education
administrators start getting a hard look at clone prices ( though not 
necessarily a hard look at what they are getting) it could spell big trouble.
In a similar vein, Apple may be shooting their Macs in the foot. Apple Macintosh
has carved out a fairly nice spot in the small business category. However,
more and more of these businessmen and administrators are looking into UNIX
systems. Why? Because Apple keeps harping on Unix and multitasking. Where I 
work is a perfect example. This place was MAC USA. Anybody even talking about 
anything beside the Mac was sneered at. But now that's changing. They may
be switching to 386's soon.Why, because Apple has convinced them that they
need Unix capabilities. This is like volkswagon starting an add campaign
stessing the safety value of a large vehicle. Pick up a copy of UNIX review
someday and then tell me one good reason to get A/UX. The irony of course, is
that most of these people had never heard of or cared about UNIX until Apple
started telling them about it.
Well, I'm off of my soapbox now.  Happy New Year, everyone.
Bob Church
att!oucsace!bchurch