Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!usc!brutus.cs.uiuc.edu!ux1.cso.uiuc.edu!tank!cps3xx!netnews.upenn.edu!vax1.cc.lehigh.edu!sei.cmu.edu!krvw From: WHMurray@DOCKMASTER.ARPA Newsgroups: comp.virus Subject: Statistical Distribution of Viruses Message-ID: <0005.9002021158.AA26135@ge.sei.cmu.edu> Date: 1 Feb 90 21:26:00 GMT Sender: Virus Discussion List Lines: 35 Approved: krvw@sei.cmu.edu Greg Gilbert asks: >Should I purchase the subscription or should I buy each update? i.e. >What is the probability in the next year that more than four viruses >(strains, clones, etc....) will occur? Well, after all of this clinical discussion, we finally find an epidemiologist. (Greg, you will enjoy my paper in "Computers and Security," Vol. 7 No. 2, April 88.) The decision is analogous to the decision to be inoculated against a biological virus. Such an inoculation has some risk and is not free. If it is sufficiently effective and if enough others take it, there will be no one for you to catch the virus from. This is another way of saying that the virus no longer finds the population sufficiently hospitable to prosper and spread. I have never been innoculated against Polio-myelitis. I often experience reactions to innoculations. I grew up in the midst of epidemic polio, and was likely immune anyway. If all of the children, least likely people to be otherwise immune, took it, a large population from the most likely vectors would be removed. Yes, I really did go through that rational, but mostly I just do not like shots. We no longer innoculate against Small-pox. If we could clean up the Universities, Info-Centers, and retail establishments, we would go a long way toward suppressing viruses. Indeed, we may have to shut down PC labs. You can now buy a Toshiba 1000 for $549.00. This is roughly the equivalent cost of my slide rule thirty-five years ago. We did not share slide rules. The economic motive behind the shared PCs in a lab has disappeared, but the unhealthy little cess pools persist. Clean up your acts! Best, Bill