Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!dino!ux1.cso.uiuc.edu!ux1.cso.uiuc.edu!m.cs.uiuc.edu!nelson
From: nelson@m.cs.uiuc.edu
Newsgroups: comp.arch
Subject: Re: Moore's Law
Message-ID: <3300099@m.cs.uiuc.edu>
Date: 8 Feb 90 01:31:07 GMT
References: <51751@bu.edu.bu.edu>
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Nf-ID: #R:bu.edu.bu.edu:51751:m.cs.uiuc.edu:3300099:000:572
Nf-From: m.cs.uiuc.edu!nelson    Feb  7 14:39:00 1990


Something here seems a bit flaky...  If, in fact, that doubling every 10
  months rule holds back to 1960, and we assume that there was only ONE
  transistor then, we have 20 trans. for every person on Earth.  Now, if
  we say that there was only ONE Burroughs 5000 (introduced in 1960), then
  it follows that each person has the equivalent of 20 of those machines.
  This is still not reasonable, though.  I think a figure of about
  TEN MILLION transistors in 1960 is reasonable.  That equates to 200
  million per person on Earth now, and that seems much too large...