Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!rutgers!aramis.rutgers.edu!klaatu.rutgers.edu!josh From: josh@klaatu.rutgers.edu (J Storrs Hall) Newsgroups: comp.society.futures Subject: Re: Technology Forecasting Message-ID: Date: 21 Feb 90 22:13:19 GMT References: <2357@kodak.UUCP> <9002202306.AA05591@world.std.com> Organization: Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, N.J. Lines: 59 Well, not too long ago, I sent the following to comp.arch: what 1980 1990 extrapolation 2000 processor pins 64 256 x4 1k clock 8MHz 32MHz x4 128MHz "Devices" 50k 1M x20 20M mips 1 12 x12 144 memory(dram) bits/chip 16k 1M x64 64M speed 240ns 80ns /4 20ns and got a flood of helpful responses, agreeing or disagreeing about various points. I've been updating it since, on the basis of that and other information. Here's the current best guess: (and allow me to point out that I changed the 1990 mips to 20 *before* the 68040 announcement appeared...) what 1980 1990 extrapolation 2000 processor pins 64 256 x4 1k clock 8MHz 32MHz x4 128MHz "Devices" 50k 1M x20 20M mips 1 20 x20 400 memory(dram) bits/chip 16k 4M x256 1G speed 240ns 80ns /3 25ns An interesting thing is that one fellow objected to the figures as too tame, because they were a "linear" extrapolation! Trendline forecasting like this is of VERY limited usefulness, and that is just as true of the numerically sophisticated forms like the "Club of Rome" models. Basically you're saying, things are going to stay the same as they are now, only more so. I would claim that the best method of forecasting is still to take someone who is a sharp social and technological observer and have him apply his whole mind to the problem, using any and all analytical tools available. One of my favorite scenes from science fiction is in "Door into Summer", by Heinlein (a SS&TO, see above). The protagonist is talking to a workman who is crushing cars in a big machine. It eventuates that they don't have engines. They are being built, and crushed, simply to provide jobs for the builders and crushers [quoted from old and unreliable memory]: "But why no engines?" "Well, it doesn't make sense to put in an engine if it's just going to be crushed, does it?" "But it doesn't make sense to build the car in the first place if it's only going to be crushed!" "Buddy, you just don't understand economics at all, do you?" --JoSH