Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!samsung!cs.utexas.edu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!helios.physics.utoronto.ca!ists!macdon From: macdon@ists.ists.ca (Rick MacDonald) Newsgroups: comp.society.futures Subject: Technology Forecasting Keywords: technology research development future Message-ID: <5462@ists.ists.ca> Date: 22 Feb 90 19:53:39 GMT Organization: Institute for Space and Terrestrial Science Lines: 43 In , J. Storrs Hall gives an interesting example of predicting processor capability in the year 2000, and concludes: >Trendline forecasting like this is of VERY limited usefulness, >and that is just as true of the numerically sophisticated forms >like the "Club of Rome" models. Basically you're saying, things >are going to stay the same as they are now, only more so. >I would claim that the best method of forecasting is still >to take someone who is a sharp social and technological observer >and have him apply his whole mind to the problem, using any >and all analytical tools available. If I were in the business of designing microprocessors, and doing technology forecasting to decide what R&D to do, I would be very concerned about keeping track of advances in optical and molecular computing and the like. Or perhaps, breakthroughs in neural nets will lead to a whole new processor technology, resulting in a limited need for microprocessors as we know them by the year 2000. These would be examples of 'blindsiding'. My point is that you have to be aware of all the technologies that could affect your business, and think about their future impact. That is a tough job. One thing that's clear to me is that a single individual is going to have a much harder time doing forecasting like this than the right group of individuals. What kind of individuals should that group consist of and how should they do their job? More importantly, how do they convince anybody that their forecasts are worth acting on? Rick MacDonald Spar Aerospace Ltd. macdon@ists.ists.ca -- Rick MacDonald Spar Aerospace Ltd. macdon@ists.ists.ca