Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!rutgers!usc!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!sunybcs!ubvms!v291nhtp From: v291nhtp@ubvms.cc.buffalo.edu Newsgroups: comp.society.futures Subject: Re: Technology Forecasting Message-ID: <84.25e65edf@ubvms.cc.buffalo.edu> Date: 24 Feb 90 15:15:59 GMT References: <5462@ists.ists.ca> Organization: Academic Computing Services, University at Buffalo Lines: 60 In article <5462@ists.ists.ca>, macdon@ists.ists.ca (Rick MacDonald) writes: > > In , J. Storrs Hall gives an > interesting example of predicting processor capability in the year 2000, > and concludes: >>I would claim that the best method of forecasting is still >>to take someone who is a sharp social and technological observer >>and have him apply his whole mind to the problem, using any >>and all analytical tools available. This is exactly what R. Buckminster Fuller did throughout his life. (He is know [among other things] for inventing the geodesic dome.) His [and my] philosophy entailed NOT speciallizing in any one area, but standing back and getting "The Big Picture." Taking a holistic, omni-interrelated look at the universe, and seeing how things fit together. > My point is that you have to be aware of all the technologies that could > affect your business, and think about their future impact. That is a tough > job. True. But SOMEBODY'S gotta do it! :) (Actually a LOT of somebodys should do it, but that's another story.....) > One thing that's clear to me is that a single individual is going to have a > much harder time doing forecasting like this than the right group of > individuals. True. Wanna help us out? I'm already part of an informal group doing that. (See below.) > What kind of individuals should that group consist of and how should they > do their job? All kinds of individual from all walks of life. Everyone has SOMETHING to offer. The whole key is to have the desire and imagination to dare to dream! That's what seems to bond us together. > More importantly, how do they convince anybody that their > forecasts are worth acting on? Ah! Now we're getting to the crux of the matter! This is one of the biggest walls I keep slamming into. It's tricky, and I can't quite figure it out. I think it has something to do with having more money than most small countries, so you can do anything you want, and not be liable to a bank for it. ;^) If the idea is good enough, and is "right," then people will spontaneously adopt it and discard the older, less efficient way. The key is bringing said idea to fruition. Like I said, I'm already a part of this. I have a Listserv on BITNET called GEODESIC, which is a sort of free-form discussion on various technologies, from space shuttle fuel-cell power systems, to toilets ( ;) ), and how they impact and interrelate to improve the standard of living for all humans on the planet, through intelligent design and proper application of the principles of the Universe. I'm in the process of peering the list to the BRAND NEW NEWSGROUP (what a plug.) ***BIT.LISTSERV.GEODESIC*** (Outrageous! How can people get away with such tawdry advertising schemes?!?) ;^) Check it out! I think you might like it! (IF we can get it running! :) ) > Rick MacDonald > Spar Aerospace Ltd. > macdon@ists.ists.ca -Patrick Salsbury U. of Buffalo, NY V291NHTP@UBVMS.BITNET