Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!bgsu-stu!klopfens
From: klopfens@bgsu-stu.UUCP (Bruce Klopfenstein)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures
Subject: Retrospective Forecasting
Keywords: forecast, forecasting
Message-ID: <5473@bgsu-stu.UUCP>
Date: 28 Feb 90 02:41:48 GMT
Organization: Bowling Green State University B.G., Oh.
Lines: 19

I am very interested in the discussion going on about forecasting.
I have studied technological forecasting, and what surprises me is
the seeming lack of research into past forecasts.  De Sola Pool
published his Retrospective Technology Assessment of the Telephone
and another looked at the trans-Atlantic cable.  What I find strange
is the lack or research effort into evaluating past forecasts.  What
better way to learn about forecasting than to re-analyze past forecasts 
and look, for example, for systematic errors in the process.  The con-
clusion I came to on the subject is that forecasting practitioners
discard yesterday's forecast and go on to the next one.  Little is
learned from past mistakes.  I'm curious what you forecasting theorists
and practitioners think about that.

-- 
Dr. Bruce C. Klopfenstein      |  klopfens@andy.bgsu.edu
Radio-TV-Film Department       |  klopfenstein@bgsuopie.bitnet
Bowling Green $tate University |  klopfens@bgsuvax.UUCP
Bowling Green, OH  43403       |  (419) 372-2138; 352-4818
                               |  fax (419) 372-2300