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From: CARBUCKLE@UMKCVAX1.BITNET (Valentine M. Smith)
Newsgroups: bit.listserv.politics
Subject: USSR, and...(#61)
Message-ID: <90058.2032.CARBUCKLE@UMKCVAX1>
Date: 27 Feb 90 20:32:00 GMT
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This is a bit on the speculative side, on the increase of powers for the
Presidency of the Soviet Union rammed through the Supreme Soviet by Gorbachev
today.

Earlier today, Craig Cyr asked me if I'd care to comment on a Soviet presidency
like an American Presidency WITHOUT the checks and balances. I would echo the
arguments raised within the Supreme Soviet - that this decision makes Gorbachev
a potential dictator, there's no guarantee that Gorbachev won't use force to
put down emergencies, that there is a risk of allowing Gorbachev to assume
Stalin-like powers, that allowing Gorbachev to decide what constitutes a _state
of emergency" may, in the long run, act against the interests of the people as
a whole.

I think MG's hold on the Army and intelligence apparatus is tenuous, whether
they would act as they did in Ceausescu's case, or as they have in the past,
such as "Prague spring," remains to be seen or tested. The Azerbaijan business,
and the brief flaring in Tadzhikistan, has shown the Army still in support of
the state, but will that hold?

The People's Congress of Deputies is now scheduled to meet "in late March," my
guess would be that Monday after the last election on March 25th.(the 26th)
This body is supposed to "ratify" the "laws" passed by the Supreme Soviet; if I
sound dubious, I guess I feel what is happening is acceptance of the "Leader's
line" as opposed to really original thinking on the part of the Soviet.

I would agree that Gorbachev needs to stick to some form of "democratization"
as he outlined in PERESTROIKA, and that the office he just expanded the powers
of needs to operate(perceptionally at the least)as democratically as possible.
He wishes a "strong Presidency," yet he needs be cognizant of the fear the
populace has of another Stalin-like figure at the top.

Two years from now, you ask?

I continue to maintain the "little federations" inside the bigger Soviet
"commonwealth" as the probable dirction of things on the largest canvass.
eastern Europe may also federate, anmd some will even join the EC. About NATO,
I sense a collision on the way to happening, but don't see the plan past that
yet. Things like the KGB/GRU are still unresolved, as is the course of Soviet
economics. The chervonets asked about 3 February seem illusory to me, will the
Soviets be willing to deal in the world with as gold-backed currency? question
remains unanswered, and so far, the USSR is not willing to make the ruble
convertible. they have to to join the new reality of economic interchange.

Lastly, the Soviets do have the ability to perceive some realities clearly.
Giving any new military assistance to Nicaragua is now "up in the air," says
the Soviets today. Right on! What about Cuba?