Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!pp!racine!gary
From: gary@racine.ACA.MCC.COM (Gary Knight)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures
Subject: Technology Forecasting
Message-ID: <609@racine.ACA.MCC.COM>
Date: 28 Feb 90 19:40:01 GMT
Organization: MCC, Austin, TX
Lines: 27


	For those interested in retrospective analysis of technology
forecasting efforts, pick up a copy of Steve Schnaars book,
MEGAMISTAKES.  You'll find it enlightening.  I spent an afternoon talking
with Schnaars after the book came out, and came away with a much
better understanding of why TFing has utterly failed when held to any
scientific standard.  Schnaars' advice was (1) watch your assumptions,
and (2) use common sense, and forget all the bells and whistles.
 
	Rather than trying to forecast (which has lots of things going
against it, including (1) high error rate, (2) assuming that tomorrow is
going to be just like yesterday, (3) people actually believe forecasts and
get complacent as a result, (4) lack of a global, qualitative approach,
it's probably preferable to work from scenarios -- i.e., determine the
future state you want to achieve, block out a path to reach it, identify
all the events that might occur and present obstacles or opportunities,
and then plan out contingencies for such events.  This way you control
the future, in a sense, rather than futilely trying to predict it.
 
	For what it's worth . . . .  And "Hi" Paul -- when are we going
to start talking about this stuff again?!?!

-- 
Gary Knight			Technology Foresight Analyst
MCC				gary@mcc.com
3500 W. Balcones Center Dr.	phone 512/338-3694
Austin TX 78759-6509		fax 512/338-3898