Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!uunet!jarthur!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!decwrl!megatest!djones
From: djones@megatest.UUCP (Dave Jones)
Newsgroups: comp.software-eng
Subject: Re: Retrospective Forecasting
Message-ID: <12180@goofy.megatest.UUCP>
Date: 1 Mar 90 02:39:01 GMT
References: <37392@iuvax.cs.indiana.edu>
Organization: Megatest Corporation, San Jose, Ca
Lines: 10

From article <37392@iuvax.cs.indiana.edu>, by smith@iuvax.cs.indiana.edu (John W. Smith):
...
> I have for many years trying to understand why we in this business
> consistently underestimate project times by hundreds of percent.  The
> conclusion I come to is that we are for the most part completely blind
> to the past. ...

I have come to the conclusion that we usually underestimate for the same
reason that the young suitor tells his girlfriend that she can't get pregnant
the first time they do it... and often with the same result.